Why Are People Leaving Virginia Beach in 2026?

By Megan Luker  |  November 9, 2026

Last week I promised to show you who is actually leaving Virginia Beach, so I pulled the latest Census numbers. Virginia Beach has lost almost 5,700 residents since 2020. Norfolk has lost more than 7,000. Suffolk is growing almost 11 percent. If you have been told a city losing people is a city about to get cheaper, this is the week that story falls apart.

Here is the part that surprised me: Virginia Beach lost population, and its September median home sale price was still up 8.4 percent from a year earlier. I am a third-generation real estate agent and a retired Navy wife who has watched this market for more than 35 years. Here is what these numbers mean for your move, and what they do not. I explain where I am coming from at 1:26.

Who Is Leaving Virginia Beach, and Who Is Growing?

Virginia Beach and Norfolk have fewer residents than in 2020. Chesapeake and Suffolk have more. That is the headline, and it is real. I open with the numbers at 0:00.

Now the caveat, because this is where most of the internet gets it wrong. Census estimates show population change. They do not show who moved or where they went. So nobody can tell you the families leaving Virginia Beach all landed in Chesapeake or Suffolk. What we know is the direction: two cities lost residents, two gained them. I walk through the Census breakdown at 2:04.

Population Went Down. Prices Went Up. Here Is How.

Fewer people should mean cheaper homes. It did not. According to REIN, our regional multiple listing service, Virginia Beach's median home sale price was up 8.4 percent in September year over year, the largest increase of the seven largest cities across Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads. Suffolk, the fastest-growing city in the region, was the only one of those seven where the median fell, down 3.3 percent. I set up that contradiction at 0:43.

A median is not a promise about any one home. It is the middle of what sold, so it moves when the mix of homes selling changes, not only when values change. But the lesson holds both ways: population growth does not automatically push prices up, and losing population does not automatically mean a crash.

One more number worth holding onto. In September there were more than 6,300 homes listed for sale across Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads, the most since April 2020. That is a buyer's advantage, not a distress signal.

The $450,000 Budget Problem

Here is the pattern I have watched for years. A family starts looking in Virginia Beach with a $450,000 budget. Four bedrooms, a two-car garage, a good-sized backyard, and they would love to be near the beach. Depending on where they look, something gives: the home needs updating, the yard shrinks, or the beach gets farther away. I lay out that trade-off at 3:49.

So they widen the search to Chesapeake, maybe Suffolk, and the options change. More square footage. Newer construction. A bigger yard. Not every home in Suffolk costs less. But sometimes you get more of what you came for. For how far a housing allowance stretches here, see what your BAH actually buys in Virginia Beach.

Then You Look at the Commute

That home can be perfect right up until you drive to work from it. If you are stationed at NAS Oceana, drive it at 7:00 on a Tuesday, not 10:00 on a Sunday. I get into commute reality at 4:44.

Anyone who has lived here knows what I-64, I-264 and the tunnels do to a morning. Somebody tells you the home is only 20 miles from the base and it sounds great, until those 20 miles take an hour. Sometimes there is not even an accident. Everybody just slows down. So ask the question I asked last week: are you buying a budget, or are you buying a drive? More in why mileage lies in Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads.

Military Families Do Not Always Leave Because They Want To

There is a reason I am careful with the phrase "people are leaving Virginia Beach." We have Naval Station Norfolk, NAS Oceana, Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek–Fort Story, Dam Neck, and installations all across this region. Military families do not always leave because they chose to. Sometimes the Navy decides. I know that one personally. I talk about mandatory rotations at 5:40.

You finally get settled, the kids have their friends, you found your coffee shop, and then the orders arrive. Congratulations, you are moving to Jacksonville. Census estimates cannot tell us how many of those departures were PCS orders, a permanent change of station, rather than a choice. That distinction matters before you read a population number as a verdict.

What the Navy's $1.7 Billion Housing Agreement Signals

In September the Navy announced a $1.7 billion housing agreement in this region, including more than 8,000 beds for unaccompanied sailors over five years. I cover the housing plan at 6:30.

Those are not 8,000 homes arriving on the civilian market, so do not plan your purchase around them. What the agreement signals is how much pressure is expected to stay on housing here. So think past the home: which base, which gate, how long you are stationed here, and what happens if orders come again.

The Quality-of-Life Paradox

Here is the number that made me laugh. Virginia Beach ran a resident survey in 2025, and 89 percent of residents who expressed an opinion rated our quality of life good or excellent. So we love living here. We just want less traffic, fewer tourists, and maybe an NFL team. I get into that paradox at 7:16.

How to Actually Choose Your City When You Are Moving on Orders

Do not pick a city because it is growing fastest, and do not assume one losing population will hand you a discount. September says otherwise. Weigh these instead. I give the buyer strategy at 8:13.

1. Start with your budget, not the city. Decide what you can comfortably carry, then see which neighborhoods deliver the bedrooms, garage, and yard you want at that number. The city is the result of that search, not the starting point.
2. Drive the commute first. On a weekday morning, from the actual neighborhood to the actual gate. Mileage is not drive time here, and the commute is the part you pay for daily.
3. Decide your timeline up front. Three years and ten years are different purchases. Know whether you would sell or rent it out when orders come, and price that now.

You are not buying a Census statistic. You are buying a home on a particular street, and that street is what you live with every day. So are people leaving Virginia Beach? The decline is real, and so is the growth in Chesapeake and Suffolk. But the numbers do not show everybody abandoning Virginia Beach, and they do not prove a collapse.

For neighborhood-level detail, start with the truth about living near NAS Oceana or the real story on Ocean Lakes home prices.

The Questions I Hear Most About Leaving Virginia Beach

Why are people leaving Virginia Beach, and are home prices falling?

Virginia Beach has lost almost 5,700 residents since 2020, while Suffolk has grown almost 11 percent. But prices did not follow population. Virginia Beach's September median home sale price rose 8.4 percent year over year, and Suffolk's fell 3.3 percent. A city losing people is not the same thing as a market in decline.

Is the Virginia Beach housing market crashing in 2026?

No. Virginia Beach's median home sale price in September was up 8.4 percent from a year earlier, the largest increase of the seven largest cities across Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads. There were also more than 6,300 homes listed for sale that month, the most since April 2020. More choice for buyers is not the same thing as falling values.

Should I buy in Suffolk or Chesapeake instead of Virginia Beach?

Maybe, but not because one city is growing faster. Suffolk has grown almost 11 percent since 2020 and its September median sale price was down 3.3 percent year over year, so the same budget can sometimes buy more square footage or newer construction. Drive the commute to your base before you decide.

Why does a 20-mile commute to NAS Oceana take so long?

Because mileage is not the same thing as drive time here. I-64, I-264 and the tunnels can turn 20 miles into an hour, and sometimes there is no accident at all. Drive your real commute at 7:00 on a Tuesday, not 10:00 on a Sunday, before you commit to a neighborhood.

Does the Navy's $1.7 billion housing plan mean more homes for sale in Virginia Beach?

No. In September the Navy announced a $1.7 billion housing agreement covering more than 8,000 beds for unaccompanied sailors over five years. Those are not 8,000 homes coming onto the civilian market. What they do tell you is how much pressure is on housing across Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads.

One client relocating to Portsmouth walked away from closing with $20,000 in seller concessions, repairs, a home warranty, and a new HVAC unit.

If you want your next PCS move to be truly seamless, download the complete Military Relocation Guide I put together for you — or book a Zoom call with me and we will talk through your base, your rank, your timeline, and your budget one-on-one. Real numbers, real neighborhoods. I point you to both at 9:47.

Welcome home. This is real-life Virginia Beach.